The New TV season begins tonight and CBS has one of their big moves right out of the gate. Last year’s breakout hit, 2 Broke Girls, assumes the 9pm anchor position after one season. It’s a gutsy move and a move that makes sense (and one I suggested last Spring: https://bigtvfan.wordpress.com/2012/04/20/early-upfront-thoughts-cbs/). It was their strongest 8:30 performer in years, regularly building on How I Met Your Mother. I think it will do well here and even more importantly for CBS, probably continue to grow (the way The Big Bang Theory has for CBS over 6 years). CBS Mondays numbers will look down compared to last years premiere, but that night was so inflated with Two And A Half Men getting a number (10.7) shows don’t produce anymore (due to people checking out Ashton Kutcher’s debut). But they should still look very strong overall tonight.
There are a couple of other differences than last year’s premiere tonight: NBC is a much stronger player than they were a year ago with The Voice, but 2BG should easily be CBSs highest rated show tonight. It’s possible (though not certain) that Partners won’t build on HIMYM the way 2BG did, but I assume the premiere will hold a very large portion of it, at the least. I think all 2BG has to get tonight to validate CBSs move of the show (after only 24 eps) is a 4.0. I think the show will have no trouble doing that and quite possibly produce a number significantly higher. I also think when the dust settles, the show will continue to grow even more (and not drop as most shows do following premieres).
Another big question tonight is how DWTS will do after 2 down seasons, ratings wise. Sometimes All Star seasons don’t do what everyone expects them to. It’s possible that part of the charm of DWTS is seeing people who have never danced before progress. This season there wont be those kind of revelations that usually happen when someone like William Levy pops out of nowhere. Still, if the show was ever gonna do it, now was the time. (After all, as terrific as last season was, it was also the shows lowest rated – though airing opposite The Voice for first time probably had a little to do with that). Certainly Tom Bergeron winning a much deserved Emmy on the eve of the premiere can’t hurt. I do think The Voice airing here hurts both shows and I think they’d both be higher rated if not opposite each other. But, I think there’s room for both to do well. The Voice should hold up fine, possibly even coming close to a 4.0 (which wont be down that much from a 4.7 last week) and DWTS should be able to get at least 16 million total viewers and maybe the All Star hook will bring some demo viewers back too. Guess we’ll know tomorrow.