Lots of people are expecting Touch or Fringe to assume the 9p Monday slot soon on FOX, but honestly, that’s just running in place with a 1 something rating. My guess is
some Gordon Ramsay show will assume the slot since it should have no trouble
pulling a 2.0 or close to it. (I think Mr. Ramsay’s finales last week might have taken a few viewers away from The Voice premiere). Reality shows command lower ad rates than scripted, but clearly there are more passionate fans for his various shows that translate into ratings than either of those dramas. I’m sure it’s at least an option FOX is considering that will plug that hole til The Following likely assumes the slot in Feb. Kitchen Nightmares could easily move from its Friday at 8p slot where it’s only scheduled to air for a few weeks until Touch moves in, in late October. It will provide a bigger number than either drama and will likely give FOX more bang for its buck than it delivers on Friday, especially since Shark Tank returned to the hour last Jan. Plus it’s a timeslot Mr. Ramsay’s fans have been accustomed to seeing him since June.
No matter how you slice it, that Revolution number is impressive. A 3.8 at
10:30 just doesn’t happen anymore, and it’s hardly a big drop from 10p. As predicted, it’s much more mass appeal than Smash which premiered with a 3.8 out of a 6.7 from The Voice. YES Revolution faced zero new drama competition – which it will next week. But even with drops, I think it will remain competitive at least the next few weeks, (and possibly be the youngest skewing show in the hour).
Last season Castle opened with a 3.3. I wasn’t expecting that number this season, even before Revolution arrived, mostly because it ended last Spring lower than the previous one. DWTS opened with a low 4 rating last fall and this time, The Voice is here (not low rated The Sing Off).
Even if DWTS gets a bump over last fall, 2 music/dance competition shows siphon audience from each other. For proof look at last Spring’s Monday numbers beginning March 19th (when DWTS joined The Voice on the night) or better yet, more recently – last Wed with The Voice and X Factor. (ABC is pre-empted in 2 markets for MNF next week, which also doesn’t help them).
Genre shows many times fall apart in week 2 but the reason I feel somewhat better about Revolution is the decent hold for the last 45 minutes and the fact that it is a younger skewing show. V dropped significantly in week 2, but it was a self-starter. Revolution has one of the strongest leads (and compatible) a show can have currently and is different from the other two 10p Mon shows. The Voice is a show people like to watch live. It elicits passion. That also helps Revolution. Genre shows tend to have passionate (and not passive audiences). The match between the two shows works well that way too. I think the biggest positive for Revolution is that it pulled this number at the ever decreasing 10p hour. But again, this is somewhat premature as NBC last night basically had no competition. It will next week. Plus for all I know, many viewers might not have liked the show and it could drop significantly next week. My gut says it won’t, though.
It is possible all three 10p Mon shows will be pretty close to each other but it’s also quite possible that Hawaii 5-0 and Castle will be under last years premieres, especially since a) Revolution is no Playboy Club and siphons some viewers from competition
b) NBC has a huge hit Mon 8-10, something it didn’t have a year ago c) CBS isn’t expected to do close to what they did at 9p with last season’s Two and A Half Men premiere (over a 10 demo number) which was an anomaly and helped the entire night. It’s worth noting that even with 8-10 so huge last Premiere Mon for CBS, Castle edged out the Hawaii 5-0 premiere with a lower lead in. So it’s possible H50 actually looks better in year to year comparison. Guess we’ll know next Tue.