NBC Fall Sked: Snap Judgment Analysis

Monday – Not surprised NBC made The Sing Off a regular show. I guessed they would possibly do this a few weeks back (though I predicted it would go on Tuesday and for an hour only).  guessing-the-upfronts-nbc. It’s actually smart of them to do this, I think, They will instantly better the average of what Mondays have been like the last few years and they could quite possibly take a few people from DWTS, certainly on the younger end. I assume ABC will make sure the DWTS cast is the best ever. The Sing Off leads in nicely to The Playboy Club. NBC smartly will use Sunday Night Football to promote. Will be interesting to see if ABC does indeed move Castle from Monday to Wednesday now. You can bet if they do, they won’t put Pan Am here. I wonder now if they leave Castle here and put Pan Am on Wed vs procedurals SVU and whatever CBS airs there. The Voice midseason into Smash makes lots of sense. Launching In January they will clearly be attacking the female skewing The Bachelor and will be two months ahead of the spring season of DWTS and will likely give that show it’s biggest competition yet. Besides NBC, winners on this night appear to be CBS and FOX as they will have the scripted field all to themselves. If ABC does move Castle, I expect Hawaii 5-0 to grow as it will be the only procedural in the hour which makes me doubt whether ABC moves Castle now. I have to think about this some more.

Tuesday – Surprised they left Tuesday intact – Not surprised about Parenthood. I’m surprised they left the trending down The Biggest Loser intact from 8-10. The show has been averaging mid to high 2’s these last 2 seasons. This should give ABC leeway now to air those multi cams from 8-9 and be the only network with comedies in that hour.

Wednesday – Really surprised they put new single cams Up All Night and Free Agents in this hour. Don’t get me wrong, the Christina Applegate and Hank Azaria led shows sound great, but this hour will be populated with X Factor, Survivor (unless they move it, which I doubt) and most importantly, ABC already has a strong single camera family show led by a woman in the hour with The Middle. If they were adding comedies here, it seems to me, it would have made more sense to air multi cams of Whitney/Chelsea which would be counter programming. I get Harry’s Law at 9. This is a very competitive hour with Modern Family and X Factor (likely) and Criminal Minds and Harry’s Law is an older skewing show but is NBC’s show with the highest amount of total viewers. There will likely be more people watching NBC at that hour than have been in a while. It will be a good lead in to SVU which is doing great as a self-starter, so this should only help it be stronger at 10.

Thursday – Rather surprised by the flow of this night. It makes very much sense to try a new comedy out of The Office but I am surprised they went with Whitney which is multi cam. There’s a strange flow to this night: 3 single cams into Whitney into Prime Suspect. To me, Up All Night would have been a good fit here . It’s single cam. Will Arnett is part of the cast. Emily Spivey who wrote for Parks & Recreation created it, so one would think it would flow well with other Thursday comedies, plus it’s female led so it would make a nice transition from The Office to Prime Suspect. Like I said above, the multi cams Whitney and Chelsea could go Wed from 8-9 and be good counter programming where there are none in the hour. With NBC and CBS airing procedurals at 10, this is a perfect slot for ABC to air one of their new soaps after Grey’s.

Wonder if NBC uses the Super Bowl to launch Awake. Seems like a big crowd pleaser type of show (Inception was a huge hit last year). I think it’s smart that they are not announcing that yet and giving themselves time to figure it out.

It’s very interesting how much more female infused NBC is next Fall. Like I said on Friday, it looks like they have ABC directly in their sights. Monday is totally female focused and both The Sing Off/The Voice are younger skewing than DWTS. I expect ABC to make it a #1 priority this summer to get the most buzzworthy (and younger) cast they have ever had, although The Sing Off is far less of a threat than The Voice. This is the biggest challenge the show has had yet. FOX will benefit too as Terra Nova and House will be the only dramas on TV from 8-10. The shows they added On Wed from 8-10 and Thu from 9:30-11p are all female led. It seems the only last vesitge of  the young 18-34 male shows NBC has courted lately is Thu from 8-9:30 and maybe Friday 8-10 with Chuck and Grimm.

Best Move: Mondays Between The Sing Off/The Voice and two potential new drama hits, NBC will have big increases on this night.  Plus as Randy Jackson would say EVERY network is now in it to win it on Monday with each airing one of their better performing shows. Looks like Monday is the new Thursday.

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