Most likely – yes! – By a significant amount each night, too. The only question mark is Friday, which I think they’ll still win. I’d like to take a look at this coming week for FOX, which should be huge for them, but also reflect on their schedule for the rest of the season, which should make them #1 in the demo again. (That Fall blip would appear to be just that.) I think smart scheduling, saving tons of fresh episodes for the rest of this season, and spreading out their hits has contributed a lot to this.
Sunday – Obviously The Super Bowl would be a colossal win anywhere but with the patterns of the last few and the NFL rising every year, this should be the biggest Super Bowl ever and beat last year’s which already beat the MASH finale. Kind of crazy in this fragmented TV world. But the live events still rule as they are DVR proof and the NFL is just… well there’s nothing bigger.
After the game is Glee. The last time a show this BIG got a post Super Bowl spot was Grey’s and that only propelled it to greater heights and allowed ABC to reverse years of failure on Thursday (the next season) and 5 years later the show is still one of the biggest ABC shows and one of Thursday’s biggest. Friends also had a post Super Bowl spot. Incidentally all these shows were in their second year. Friends ran another 8 years. I think this will only help Glee get bigger. I expect the Glee post SB numbers to be as big as Grey’s was, if not larger.
House, while down, is still one of the biggest dramas in the demo and with The Chicago Code, I think FOX will have another long-term player. Shawn Ryan doesn’t make a bad TV show. Terriers while short-lived was the best new show this entire season. TCC should be a lot more accessible, as it has a cop procedural in its backdrop. Lots of promos tonight will only help. NBC giving them zero drama competition with The Cape/The Event and ABC serving mostly females with The Bachelor/DWTS leaves really only Two And A Half Men as the male alternative here. After next week, it’s in reruns for at least a month (though it’s still quite potent in reruns). FOX was very smart with only using 10 eps of House this season so far, so there are still 13 left between now and May. That means The Chicago Code will have originals leading into it for virtually its entire 13 week run. The stellar reviews the show is getting should also help. I think FOX Monday has a good shot at being number 1 tomorrow night. If not, a very close number 2 to CBS.
Glee alone was helping FOX win Tuesday. With the post SB airing it should only be bigger. I bet this week Raising Hope gets over a 3. New comedy Traffic Light should get sampled. Even if it doesn’t work it will do better than Running Wilde. FOX was winning Tuesdays all through the Fall, even with RW getting 1’s. FOX also has only run 10 eps of Glee thus far, so there should only be 3-4 weeks when Glee isn’t new between now and the end of the season
Wednesday and Thursday
Idol is airing both of these nights and kudos to FOX for fixing this ship, because after 3 weeks, the Wednesday show is barely off from last year – still getting 9’s. With the avg network show getting no more than a high 4, this is huge. The Thursday show has been getting high 7’s. FOX basically has their own little NFL and the nights it airs, it will handily win, regardless of what comes after it.
No one believed Fox would finally buck the trend of moving an under performing, sci-fi show to Friday and basically retain the same audience as on Thursday, but so far Fringe has. Even this past week, it was down to a 1.6 but still that’s barely off its Thursday number and The Super Bowl commercial special on CBS did quite well and might have provided bigger competition. If Supernatural took away some people, again it was only down .3. Kitchen Nightmares is also doing better than it ever has on Friday and handily wins the 8p hour. Between the 2, Fox went from dead last on Friday to first on the last 3 weeks (tied for First this past week). I think FOX will be first or at least very close to it this week.
Their 1-2 combo of Cops and America’s Most Wanted still wins by a mile and should continue to do so. This week they have Nascar which will also win by a mile.
The Sunday animation block continues to be a force, especially among young men and in Family Guy they have a show that does unbelievably well even in reruns.
It’s very likely FOX will be #1 every night this week, but even if they aren’t, they are in a position to quickly be #1 in the demo for the season and they have put together a midseason schedule that has mega hits every night of the week, with potential for a couple of new breakout hits. CBS gets much deserved praise for their schedule, but FOX should be commended as well. Yes they have one hour less to program each night than the other nets, and odds are, if they did they’d have some holes like NBC and ABC. But given that they have X Factor in the fall, and some impressive development coming up, they seem to be in a very good place. Many have said in the past that FOX wins the season mostly because of IDOL, which was sort of true. It used to mask a lot of holes. Looking over their schedule every night of the week, one can’t claim that anymore. Yes IDOL most defintely helps, but there are many other pieces to the puzzle.