Looking ahead to the upcoming TV season, the general consensus seems to be that it wasnt a great year for comedy development. It appeared to be a priority for all the nets to expand in comedy this year but judging from the overall insta reactions to the new crop it doesn’t seem like anyone is bowled over in the way they were almost three years ago when Modern Family debuted.

It’s not exactly surprising because even before the pilots were shot there weren’t many loglines describing the projects ordered to pilot that screamed, “that’s unique” or “that sounds interesting”. The truth is, loglines convey little anyway. Modern Family’s logline didn’t sound as fresh as the finished pilot did. One thing that was pretty clear this development season again was the sameness and blandness regarding many comedies and quite frankly, the whiteness of most of them.

Growing up in the 70s and 80s most of my favorite TV families were the Evans family of Good Times and The Jeffersons of the Upper East Side.  Even Lucy and Ricky made a multi cultural marriage, relatable, in addition to funny, in the 50s. It just strikes me as odd that we finally have an African-American family in the White House and there are less representation of non white families on TV than there were 40 years ago.

A great family comedy usually accomplishes a few things. First and foremost it makes us laugh. Secondly, it helps us relate to our own or see ourselves in others. Finally, with a great comed the characters sort of become an extended group of friends we choose to hang out with or let in to our homes on a weekly basis. If through that, we can be exposed to people we wouldn’t come across in our everyday life and be more  accepting, all the better.

Using Modern Family as an example again, whats so special about it, I think, is that it perfectly reflects the reality that in many of our own immediate families today there are all different subsets of families. Siblings marry same sex partners. Fathers remarry younger women from different cultures and adopt their children many of whom are much younger than their own grown children. Most kids from heterosexual parents going to school today are friends with kids that have two mommys or daddys or come from homes with dual religions and/or multi cultures. We all have more in  common than we don’t and seeing that on display in a favorite TV comedy makes that aspect of it all secondary. It’s why it surprises me that many of the family comedies we see today don’t reflect what is real life.

Most family comedies aren’t telling any overall new story. The stories don’t change, there are only so many new stories to tell. It’s how they are told that add a uniqueness or freshness. It’s kind of surprising to me that networks aren’t attempting to find different ways of telling family stories with people of different cultures or faiths or sexual orientations. To the best of my knowledge. there was only one sitcom pilot greenlit this season that focused on an African-American family and that was the CBS Martin Lawrence project which wasn’t ultimately ordered to series. Ryan Murphy’s The New Normal on NBC was the only comedy pilot ordered that focused on same sex parenting. It just seems awfully bizarre that as we as a people become more evolved in levels of acceptance, our depictions of family on TV seem more or less straight out of the 50s (with few exceptions mentioned). If Norman Lear was still telling stories on a weekly basis I’m sure he’d be on top of this as he was always ahead of the curve and made it a priority to be. What usually resulted from that was amidst all the great comedy, he was able to talk about issues like racism, rape and abortion from authentic and flawed characters (even leads like Archie Bunker) and this was the 70s!

ABC has a wonderful night of family comedy on Wednesday. A new entry this fall, The Neighbors mines its comedy from a New Jersey suburban couple who discover their neighbors are in fact aliens. Surrounding all the jokes and situations about their varying differences, (like how the aliens cry from their ears,) by the end of the pilot the male spouses are commiserating with each other about their female spouses and vice versa. Essentially the “we have more in common than we don’t” idea is being told through a  fresh coat of paint, in this case with Aliens. I guess I feel we don’t need to go to other galaxies to make the same point. Earlier this season NBC bought a pitch that sounded fantastic, unique and would present fresh situations. It starred standup comic Omid Djalili. I assume it never got out of the script stage and that seems a shame . http://www.vulture.com/2011/10/nbc_will_try_to_bridge_the_dif.html

The Middle is a terrific family comedy, one of the few that actually resembles many real life families that are currently struggling financially. Why isn’t there a show like that with 3 teenage kids who happen to have two same sex parents. I don’t think I have ever seen that attempted on TV (just in films like “The Kids Are Alright”). That’s reality for many and seems a family comedy we have yet to see on TV.

ABCs most successful multi cams this young century were My Wife & Kids and George Lopez, two shows that in reruns on Nick at Nite are beating some of the broadcast nets current offerings. If I were ABC, I’d make it a priority to develop a single cam family comedy revolving on an African-American family to add to the Wednesday block. Why not even go back to Damon Wayans and ask him to write a new family comedy in the single camera form. A few years ago the great Larry Wilmore was set to write and star in a single cam NBC family comedy. It seemed to never make it out the script stage.

What about a family comedy revolving around a mixed race couple and their respective families. This was done on a weekly basis 40 years ago on The Jeffersons. The Golden Girls did an episode about this 25 years ago when Dorothy’s son was engaged to an African American woman who was considerably older. Dorothy was upset her son was marrying a much older woman. The woman’s mother was upset she was marrying a white man. In the denouement it was revealed she was pregnant and both grandmas put their differences aside and  gave their blessing as they were about to be grandparents. The episode was funny, but felt very authentic which is something the Golden Girls did on a regular basis. But this plot could be the pilot for a new series. Just think of all the stories writers could mine from this situation.

For a time in the 90s, networks, specifically ABC, would sign successful standup comics to create a series based on their standup (and realistically their lives) and in most cases they were successful because there was a distinct point of view. It doesn’t have to be your point of view to be successful but it has to be authentic. Recently, standup comic Judy Gold told a story how she tried to sell a sitcom based on her unorthodox family situation which when you hear, you can imagine 100 episodes of a TV around and no one, not one network was interested. Here is a taste of her talking about it on The View  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jC23wggKHfE That seems really strange to me and appears to be a giant missed opportunity.

It seems Tyler Perry on TBS or Byron Allen’s production company (which has two African American family sitcoms, one interestingly enough set in the White House, going into production this fall) are the only people telling non white family stories on a weekly basis. That just seems wrong.

About a year ago, I asked “Were Is This Generation’s Norman Lear and Why Aren’t The Network’s courting Him”. http://bigtvfan.wordpress.com/2011/03/20/where-is-this-generations-norman-lear-and-why-arent-the-networks-courting-him/ I actually think there might be many Norman Lear’s out there but for whatever reason the networks seem stuck to the same old/same old for the most part. That seems crazy, especially since the world seems more than ready for it and yet somehow, with a few major exceptions, you couldn’t really tell what decade this is by the comedies on the air. More importantly, for the networks bottom line, same old/same old usually gets you cancelled/cancelled, whereas the bigger risks and most distinctive ideas usually lead to many years of a hit and rich syndication packages.

Post Upfront Thoughts And Suggestions:

FOX – This schedule pretty much worked out how most of us expected. The only thing that surprised is me is that FOX is leading with Raising Hope instead of putting it at 8:30 and beginning the night with new Ben and Kate. The other thing regarding FOX is they are expecting a season 2 bounce for New Girl (which makes sense) but as of now I don’t see New Girl reruns on their summer schedule which I think is a mistake. Maybe they will air them Thu at 9 after The Choice finishes its 6 weeks run, but if that show hits, I imagine they will likely extend it. Could it air with Family Guy reruns on Sun? Not sure.  Either way I think it’s foolish of them not to rerun New Girl over the summer and I think they will minimize their fall bounce if they don’t.

NBC – I don’t get much of their schedule, especially Thu. Leaving the Thu comedies as is, followed by Rock Center is just perplexing. I thought they should move The Office to 8 followed by 3 new comedies or followed by Parks and Rec and the 2 new comedies they love (in this case Go On and The New Normal) from 9-10. I wonder if they held off on that since they expected, like many of us, for The Big Bang Theory to go to 9. Now that hasn’t happened, I really think they should move the Tuesday at 9 comedies to Thu at 9, after The Office and P&R and I honestly think they might take advantage of the lack of comedies there and ammend their schedule. Currently, the Tuesday comedies will have the benefit of The Voice but they are also airing against similar skewing comedies on ABC and FOX. Thu at 9 they will have the comedy audience to themselves. NBC could always debut them after The Voice for a few weeks and then move them to Thu.

Rick Kissel from Variety had a very good suggestion. He thought NBC should have moved The Voice to Tue/Wed. I agree. Tuesday it would be the only performance show, no Idol, no DWTS. Airing against DWTS both shows lose some audience. Tuesday, it would have that audience to itself. NBC could schedule Chicago Fire out of The Voice Tuesday which is different from anything else in the hour. I’d suggest they use it to help Parenthood but it’s clear they have no desire to do that. Wed they could start with the 2 comedies hey have scheduled and air The Voice results at 9. It would give NBC their strongest ratings in that hour they have had recently and X Factor is no Idol and they might even take that down a few pegs. At 10 they could launch Revolution out of Voice results show. Nothing else like it in that hour.

So what happens Monday? Well at 8, they could either air 30 Rock/UAN. Before you say up against CBS comedies???? Well, the ones they are currently up against on Thu are far stronger. They can always go the reality route and hold the comedies. SVU could air at 9. They are already moving it to 9 on Wed and on Mon it would not face another CBS procedural like it does on Wed. At 10 they can air Parenthood which is counter to 2 cop procedurals. Will Monday be weaker than it is now? Yes, but I bet SVU could be stronger and Tues, Wed will definitely be stronger, plus The Voice Performance show would be stronger, and I think the comedies have a better shot breaking out on Thu than vs. 2 other nets comedies on Tue.  More importantly, they are seeding the next wave of NBC Thu comedies this way and there are no other comedies airing 9-10 Thu. Another idea would be for Parenthood to assume the Thu 10 quality mantel slot that NBC used to be known for and this way it would follow the new comedies the same way is it now scheduled to on Tue. Rock Center can go to Mon at 10. Still don’t understand why NBC is airing this on a weeknight, it’s beyond baffling.

ABC – I think ABCs schedule is smart in many ways. The Sunday schedule is brilliantly plotted and a gift to the promo dept. All 3 shows have a good vs. evil theme with strong women at the center and two of ABCs biggest and buzziest hits from this past year are now back to back. 666 Park Ave seems like a perfect extension of that with some new elements and a stellar cast of great actors who have been in recent ABC shows.I can already see the promos for Sun in my head. Just a really smartly scheduled night.

I also think Last Resort Thu at 8 is very smart. I’ve been saying there’s an opportunity for ABC to launch one of their strongest dramas there and this is a big tent show. Shawn Ryan is a great writer and show runner and this is the right slot to launch this. There’s no other drama in the hour (excluding CW which skews younger) and I’d be more worried if a show like this launched at 10 where the viewing levels are much lower. This is an 8 or 9p show and I think it’s perfectly placed.

The issues regarding ABCs sked are mostly on Tue. I admire greatly that they are starting the season with Happy Endings and Apt 23 back to back. Instead of leaving those on the shelf til midseason they are putting them front and center and unlike FOX, both shows will be rerunning all summer, beginning next week. It’s smart to schedule them at 9 because after DWTS every Winter, ABC has this big hole. These shows have a strong, loyal, albeit small, audience. If these shows do well enough, then adding the new comedies at 8 is easier. Some have mentioned that DWTS skews much older and these comedies are younger skewing. That is definitely true. However, DWTS still provides a huge audience. The results show should garner at least 14 million viewers. That’s a lot of people to potentially funnel into the next show, Even if HE gets half – 7 million – I imagine ABC will be happy.

(One other thing ABC could have done on Tue was to move The Middle here (followed by a new sitcom), which is a much better fit with DWTS. The Middle is already a big enough hit, self starting on Wed, that at 9, after DWTS, it probably could have done even better and possibly win the hour. It also has a different audience skew than the comedies on FOX/NBC. On Wed they could have moved Suburgatory to 8 followed by a new sitcom. I imagine the reason ABC didn’t do this is because the Wed lineup is so strong and important to them and they didn’t want to mess with it and I completely understand that. Plus, they are already making one big move on Sunday. I applaud them for trying to make HE/Apt 23 work. I imagine if it doesn’t, The Middle or Suburgatory might be leading an hour on Tuesday next year but I’m ahead of myself. )

Private Practice mostly held up Tue at 10 but now it won’t have the DWTS lead and it’s possible it won’t hit a 2.0. Still, against Vegas it should likely still do well with women, but then again Parenthood is very female skewing. It does fit well after the new comedies and ABC can’t launch 4 new dramas in the fall, so it’s a good option. I imagine PP will air here til ABC launches a new drama like Red Widow mid season. This night is a risky one for ABC as the comedies aren’t guaranteed to do great at 9 especially against similar comedies on other nets, but there’s good flow to the night and I appreciate ABC trying.

Wednesday, The Neighbors is finally a family sitcom after Modern Family which is what ABC needed to do to make that night complete. I imagine they were hoping American Judy was gonna go here but it didn’t make the cut and they are allegedly redeveloping it. The Neighbors, while a single cam family comedy, is much broader than MF and part of me wonders if they would be better served to air it at 8:30 where it’s a much better fit with The Middle (in that they are shows that the entire family from age 2 on can enjoy) and then slide Suburgatory to 9:30, which has the more sophisticated tone of MF and can hopefully benefit from the lead. Also, while I  think Nashville is in the right place at 10, it might be harder for ABC to launch a new 9:30 and 10p show on the night. Airing The Neighbors at 8:30 and Suburgatory at 9:30 makes launching Nashville much easier, rather than out of another new show (though it’s possible ABC could stagger launches and have a 1hr Modern Family lead into Nashville premiere, or one week air two new eps of The Middle or Subugatory, one in their regular slot and one at 9:30, til they premiere The Neighbors. As is, the second Wed is a Presidential debate and the shows will be pre-empted from 9-11. There are lots of issues regarding Wed in the fall that will make scheduling a challenge.) I am guessing ABC hopes that its broader tone will help it hold on to more of the Modern Family audience than previous shows and that’s why it is airing at 9:30, which is I guess is possible. It just seems it would be benefit them to flip the 2 comedies.

CBS – most of us were very surprised that they didn’t go with 4 comedies on Thu but seeing they only picked up 2, its clear they just weren’t satisfied with their comedy development. CBS is very strong and its smart of them to just go with their best shows rather than pick up inferior shows just to make a 4 comedy block on Thu. I expected CBS to move 2 Broke Girls to Mon at 9, as I mentioned in my pre upfront thoughts, and I expected 2.5 Men to go to Thu to lead off the comedy block but moving it to 8:30 is smart and they have a sitcom to match the numbers of TBBT and it gives Person of Interest a boost. This way they are really nurturing PoI. I also expect TBBT and POI reruns to bookend the Thu edition of Big Brother this summer and that should likely give the latter show a nice boost as well. As much as I think CBS would benefit by airing TBBT at 9p,  I can’t argue with any of their Mon and Thu moves.

I am surprised, however, that they didn’t launch Vegas at 9, especially with the comedy glut and NCISs 20 million. I would never bet against CBS but 10p is just harder to launch a new show now and part of me wonders if they know this show is a big leap and they are protecting themselves and not upending NCIS:LA in the process.

I don’t understand the scheduling of the dramas on Sun. I think they would benefit immensely by flipping The Mentalist and The Good Wife. Both shows would likely do better.

CW - I don’t usually delve in to the CW, but I must applaud Mark Pedowitz. I haven’t understood for most of this season why their second highest rated show, Supernatural, is wasted on Friday while lower rated shows air on more viewed nights. Mr. Pedowitz moved it to Wed at 9 which makes much more sense as does most of the flow to their new schedule.

The Long Journey SHARK TANK Took To #1:

One of the fun things for a spectator and fan of the TV medium (for which I count myself as one) is watching the journey of shows. Some explode on arrival, but many have taken a long path to hit status. In this ever increasingly fragmented entertainment world it’s not as common as it once was for a show to start slowly and then grow into something bigger. One current example that is doing this, is Shark Tank. It’s based on the UK and Canadian show Dragon’s Den and is unlike anything else on TV. It’s fascinating to watch billionaire entrepreneurs invest in everyday people’s idea and in the process make someone a millionaire in minutes. Each pitch is different and hence the drama always changes. It’s quite compelling when a regular joe walks in with an idea and a dream and 5 Sharks are tripping over each other to be in with business with her/him.

Shark Tank was announced to premiere as part of ABCs 2009 Fall schedule. It was slotted for Tuesday at 8. Seeing as it was set to premiere against NCIS, The Biggest Loser, (which was much stronger then), and the one fall edition of So You Think You Can Dance. ABC wisely decided to give it a head start and premiered it in August on Sunday at 9p after the much-anticipated 10th anniversary return of Who Wants To Be A Millionaire. I don’t think anyone expected that was gonna be greeted with as low ratings as it received. As a result, Shark Tank didn’t open hugely either, though it improved on Millionaire and mostly held its high 1′s the rest of the summer run. ABC still moved it to Tue 8p for Sep and Oct as planned, before they premiered V in November. Even against strong competition, it still held mid 1′s and built to high 1′s by the end of the Tuesday run.

Clearly encouraged by the fact that it didn’t fall apart, ABC asked the producers to put together 2 more episodes from existing footage for a total of 15 eps for the first season. They aired the remaining episodes on Friday at 9p in the winter of 2010. Once again, the show did pretty well and improved the hour.

While still not a ratings monster,  ABC took some time deciding and finalizing a renewal. In late summer 2010 they announced a renewal for 8 eps (plus one holdover from season 1 for a total of 9 eps). ABC and Mark Burnett were clearly looking for ways to entice more viewers, so they brought in 2 guest sharks - Mark Cuban and Jeff Foxworthy for 3 eps a piece, replacing Kevin Harrington in those eps. The show returned in late March 2011, Fridays at 8p, more than a year after the last episode had aired and it immediately began improving on what Supernanny did in the timeslot. ABC renewed it for a 3rd season and it was set to be on their fall schedule at 9 after Extreme Makeover:Home Edition. Somewhere after the upfronts it was decided to make EM:HE all 2 hour eps and Shark Tank would debut midseason with 13 episodes.

An interesting thing happened over last summer as ABC reran season 2 episodes a second and a third time. The reruns were getting close to what the originals got the first time. It was averaging around a 1.2 and coming in at #1. It was likely that the episodes were being seen by new people each time. The truth is, I have seen every episode of the show and I even watch the reruns and I know I am not alone. It’s still compelling even in rerun form and I generally don’t remember the outcomes most of the time. Shark Tank’s drama changes with each pitch and there are generally 4 pitches an episode (plus an update on the status of a successful one). The beauty of the show is that even if one doesn’t come away with a deal, the exposure on the show usually bolsters the business and the show is not shy about showing the success of those that walked away empty-handed.

Seeing how well the show did over the summer, it seemed possible the show could grow even more this, its 3rd season. Marc Cuban really popped on the three, season two eps he appeared in and he was promoted full-time for the entire 3rd season. Producers clearly wanted to feature more entrepreneurs with different styles/success and they had Lori Grenier sit in for Barbara Corcoran for a few eps (likely a day of taping).

Before it returned in January, CBS announced that it was moving its successful Undercover Boss to Fridays. The show had recently returned to a 3.0 on Sunday and this being CBS, it stood to reason that it would be #1 on Friday at 8. This was now a 4 way reality hour with FOXs strong Kitchen Nightmares still in the slot (and that had been the #1 show, usually generating around a 1.6). and NBCs decent performer Who Do You Think You Are. I thought ABC would be better served putting Shark Tank at 9p where it would have the reality slot all to itself and easily win. ABC kept it at 8p but smartly started it two weeks before WDYTYA and about a month before Undercover Boss would premiere.

Shark Tank’s season 3 premiere on January 20th got series highs for the show on Friday nights with a 1.8. It handily beat Kitchen Nightmares, and more importantly for ABC, it vastly improved what EM:HE was getting in the hour and was way higher than what Supernanny was getting the year before. The highest it had gotten in that slot in Season 2 was a 1.5 but most weeks it was around a 1.2. Clearly more people had found it over the summer. It held up over the ensuing weeks and the NBC and FOX reality shows were now behind Shark Tank. ABC ordered two more eps that the producers could cull from existing footage for a total of 15. When Undercover Boss came to the slot mid February it opened huge with a 2.2, a number that Friday nights rarely see anymore. That week Shark Tank dropped a bit to a 1.5 but still was above its season 2 average.  It has also been averaging close to 6 million viewers each week and the few reruns that aired (a 4th run of the three season 2 Marc Cuban episodes) were getting close to 5 million and 1.2/1.3 in the demo, basically numbers the originals were getting last year.

Over the last few months the gap has narrowed between Undercover Boss and Shark Tank to only a couple of tenths apart between the two (with CBS winning). But this past Friday, Shark Tank beat Undercover Boss for the first time, 1.7-1.4, and Shark Tank was the highest rated show of Friday night in the demo – pretty impressive for an 8p show in the spring.

This is a show that is still growing and it stands to reason that more new people will find it again this summer in reruns. I can’t imagine ABC won’t have it on its fall schedule and it is sure to keep them a player on Friday nights. But as it grows I can’t help but wonder what it would do on a more viewed night. Could they possibly move it to Thursday at 8p next season? I don’t think they should for a few reasons. Right now, it’s made them a real player on Friday nights. I also think they should attack Thu at 8p with one of their strongest new dramas. It’s important for them to seed the night with the night’s eventual successor (like they did on Sunday this year with Once Upon A Time) and with TBBT likely going to 9p there is opportunity.  Plus the show is still in growth mode and if it continues, the opportunity to move it will be there in the future. But I think ABC could possibly get the best of both worlds:

As I have said before, I think ABC should give Shark Tank a large order for season 4. I’m thinking 30 episodes. They produce 15 episodes from a few days of taping, Adding a few more taping days to double the amount of episodes doesn’t seem like a heavy task. Plus this appears to be a relatively inexpensive show to produce. All the money invested comes from the Shark’s own pockets. By producing 30 episodes, ABC can have enough for Friday night but they can also have some extra to use during the week when some of their serial shows need to take a break . For example, I suggested in my ABC upfront post that in order to curb Revenge‘s rerun problem and to run it consecutively as much as possible, all ABC has to do is rest the show in December and January. What if they aired a few new Shark Tanks Wed at 10 in January? Seems pretty win/win to me. They get to test Shark Tank on a more viewed night, expose it some people who probably have never seen it on Friday and also do a ratings number sure to exceed what a rerun would get. Extra episodes can also help ABC in case a new drama fails early like Charlie’s Angels did last year.

Whatever the case, I expect Shark Tank to continue to grow next season and it will be interesting to see where its growth takes it next.

The Scheduling Nightmare Facing The Nets This Fall:

The 2012-2013 TV Season begins September 24th and normally the rollout of new and returning shows can sometimes be a crazy obstacle course for network programmers and schedulers as they attempt to get new shows sampled amidst the rival networks big guns. Moving returning shows to new nights can also be tricky for the same reason. Basically everyone is coming back at the same time and there are just natural casualties sometimes merely because of the mass pileup of shows. In this ever-expanding DVR, internet and millions of channels world, it’s even more complicated.

The coming fall season will present even more challenges for those involved as it’s an election year and the month of October brings a pre-emption every week on different nights for 3 Presidential and 1 Vice Presidential debates. October 3rd (Wednesday – the second Wed of the season), October 11th (Thursday), October 16th (Tuesday) and October 22nd (Monday).  That’s just October.

November brings Election Night on November 6th, so if you’re keeping score, that’s 2 Tues interruptions in the first 6 weeks, which is less than ideal if you’re launching a new Tues show.

(UPDATE  5/3/2011 6:10PM: The original draft of this story at this point contained incorrect info on my part that Sweeps began Nov 1st and the networks would have to deal with Thanksgiving falling during Nov Sweeps. Thanks to commenter Mitch who pointed out to me that Sweeps begins Oct 25th and runs through Nov 21st, so it concludes on Thanksgiving eve like it has the last few years. I have since removed the part of this story that included my thoughts on how the nets should handle that since it’s not an issue. Sorry for that. My bad. Thanks again, Mitch).

It’s really hard to even conjecture at this point how most nets will deal with these preemptions, especially since the fall schedules haven’t been set yet, but I imagine scheduling will be even more challenging than normal.

CBS - As usual, I expect CBS to be affected the least and weather this the best. The NCIS duo have proven to be the most resilient show there is, so the 2 Tue preemptions shouldn’t really stall any momentum and if a new show is hammocked between them, it should be protected. Plus, the week off for each night in October just replaces a week of reruns for them. They don’t have any live performance shows that will be affected and their dramas repeat better than any other network. As is, they already run drama reruns Thanksgiving eve.

FOX -  In addition to the aforementioned pre-emptions, FOX has Baseball interrupting their sked as well.  I guess having 3 hours of X Factor take up the bulk of their schedule makes this a little easier since that show can move around, but last year FOX got really hurt by taking New Girl off for 3 weeks due to Baseball which severely curbed its momentum. Now there are 2 other Tuesdays that will be preempted. This is, again, less than ideal when you are (allegedly) planning on launching a new comedy block. I guess they have 2 options: Start the Tuesday block earlier, and get a head start. They could conceivably come back the first or second Tuesday in September and have 5 or 6 weeks uninterrupted.  The second option, well hmmm, on second thought, I don’t see any option but the first, if they want to get any Tuesday traction, that is.

NBC – Assuming The Voice is on Mon/Tue they will need to shorten the Mon Oct 22nd ep to an hour, which I guess isn’t horrible. If they are launching new shows on Wed and Thu, it might benefit them starting earlier as well, but now that we have heard they will use the Olympics culmination to premiere some new shows in late August, it all makes sense. They will get a head start. That’s actually their best option, as even without the Olympics platform and the preemptions they should have premiered some early before any competition presented itself.

ABC - As usual the network likely to face the most issues.

The second Wednesday of the season will be preempted from 9-11p, so should they premiere Revenge (assuming it’s still in that slot) the week before only to preempt it a week later? They should probably just return it October 10th and run it straight for 4 weeks til the next preemption (more on that below). If there is a new comedy at 9:30 should they premiere the week before and then take it off? My guess is if that’s that case they’ll likely do an hour Modern Family premiere the week before and premiere the new comedy on the 10th with Revenge premiere. But there’s no way this is ideal. 

DWTS results show can slide to 8p the first Tue debate Oct 16th and that conserves new eps of scripted originals, so that actually works okay. Problems arise October 22nd when their biggest show-DWTS-will either have to be cut by an hour or do they move the performance show that week to Sun, move results to Mon…. nah it’s just too messy, preempting two shows on Sun, moving results show up a night etc. It affects too many shows and many nights. I guess they just have to deal with losing an hour of one of their biggest shows. (Crazy idea: Could they air some DWTS specials that week and just extend the season. Probably not) I still think ABC should extend the DWTS season to 12 weeks.

Election night week, the results show will have to be moved to Wednesday (11/7) which while preempting the 8-9 comedies, does help conserve extra eps of those shows which should help in Spring. But, if the CMAs air the second week of Nov, (11/14), like they usually do, that will be 2 consecutive weeks of pre-emption for those shows. Is it possible ABC moves the CMAs to Thursday this year? I suggested that last year for 2 reasons: While the CMAs give ABC a huge boost it messes the Wednesday momentum. The following Wed (11/21) is Thanksgiving Eve, a low viewing night. Last fall, Revenge had its highest numbers (3.0) since the pilot the Wednesday before the CMAs, and hasn’t gotten as high since. Moving the CMAs to Thu, in addition to moving it to another lucrative night would alleviate the Wed preemption problem.  The problem, I think, is that there is now Thursday Night Football on the NFL Network and there is shared audience (I think that’s why the CMAs are never on Sun).  So if the CMAs air on Wed as usual, there are two weeks in a row of the 8-9 comedies being preempted and then the following week they return on low viewing Thanksgiving eve which is just horrible for momentum.  Similarly, Revenge returning after a week off on Thanksgiving eve will not lead to good results. ABC should just air comedy reruns that night, but if they go with new eps of their comedies, Revenge should be preempted.  If the CMAs remain on Wed in November, that gives them a great number for the night but affects the momentum of the regular ABC Wednesday lineup. Oh and the first Wednesday of sweeps is Halloween, a lower viewing night. So ABC has a challenge every Wednesday in the fall. Oy.

I actually don’t have easy suggestions for the people making these decisions now. They do have my sympathy as scheduling this fall can’t be easy or fun.

X Factor is no Idol & Nets Shouldn’t Fear Scheduling New Shows Against It

Last Summer, most everyone that works in the TV biz and active fans of the medium were expecting FOX to have another “death star” on their hands with X Factor. Idol had just beaten the odds, shook up the judges panel after Simon Cowell’s departure, and came out ahead and was still the #1 show on TV by far. Most assumed that the biggest star of the show was Simon, so here he was reuniting with another former Idol judge (and one he had chemistry with), Paula Abdul, in a new bigger, more ostentatious, more obnoxious version of his former home.

FOX mounted a huge campaign and make no mistake, ego was front and center, from the corporate jets the judges emerged from to the mocking of the “kinder” music competition shows, this show had “balls”. That was the message. But a few months earlier The Voice showed up and put a new, fresher spin on music competitions and contained some new elements that were to be so “revolutionary” when they appeared on X Factor.

I think the fact that a) another hit singing competition had inserted itself between Idol and X and b) the fact that X was premiering the same time as all the hit scripted shows were returning after 4 months (unlike when IDOL premieres in Jan and is the new exciting kid on the block) may have diminished X Factor’s luster at the outset. But also, maybe all of us just assumed Simon was the primary reason people were still so enamored of Idol. Also, X Factor was hardly that unique, despite Simon’s consternation otherwise. It was basically a fall edition of Idol, albeit one with lots more ego. X Factor did a lot to help FOXs fall, there is no denying it made them #1 for the first time ever in the fall. But X Factor’s finale did slightly less than DWTS’s fall finale and that show was having its lowest season to date.  Many pundits and FOX were saying “yeah but IDOL grew from 1st season to 2nd, and the same will likely happen here”. That’s really faulty logic to me, as IDOL was a complete unknown when it premiered in summer ’02 (and summer has much lower viewing levels), plus this genre was a novel concept. It was the first show of its kind and 10 years later we’ve had many. This was not a new series, it was, as I mentioned, basically a fall edition of Idol.

In the time between when X finished on December 22nd and when it returns this fall, Idol will have had a complete season, The Voice will have completed its 2nd, much larger season and there are new music competition shows on ABC and CW this Summer. The Voice’s 3rd season will be premiering before X Factor returns. It just makes me think it will be even less special when it comes back. There is already music competition fatigue as The Voice has trended down in the last 2 months. Come fall, I expect viewers to be more excited about their favorite scripted shows not seen since May returning, (and some much publicized new shows,) than another iteration of a singing competition that will have had no rest from the airwaves.

Rumors that Britney Spears is joining the panel doesn’t make me think it will suddenly blow up. Signing big names doesn’t make a show resonate. People have to connect with the personalities and if X Factor proved anything it was that even the biggest stars of the medium weren’t enough to lure them to the TV in droves.

I can conceivably see where X Factor will still get 3′s, which again is far better than what FOX usually got in the fall. But it’s hardly a juggernaut and even Idol, which is still one of the most popular shows on TV, is not the “death star” it once was. It is regularly beaten by The Big Bang Theory. If Idol can be programmed against now, most certainly, X Factor is not something to be feared of.

Fox will complete their new judging panel soon, and I’m sure there will be a mammoth campaign including Simon saying how much better it is, etc. The thing is when Simon says “we’re looking for a star”, it’s hardly novel. 4 shows this year alone will have been searching for the same thing.

I think CBS, NBC, and ABC should make their fall schedules with no worry that it shouldn’t put promising new shows opposite it. CBS and ABC will likely have most of their Wednesday lineups intact, but NBC shouldn’t fear scheduling well-loved new shows against it on Wed or Thu. CBS will likely move TBBT to Thu 9p, but I expect them to move either Two & A Half Men or How I Met Your Mother to Thu 8p with a new comedy to follow. ABC will likely have something new on Thu at 8p and they should not fear putting Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue or Nashville or any other promising new show, Thu at 8p. Especially if CBS moves TBBT to 9p, Thu at 8p is a timeslot that a great new show should have an easier time breaking out this fall, than it was this spring.

Early Upfront Thoughts – NBC:

NBC still has much rebuilding to do. They had a really rough year, even with the Super Bowl, but they can take solace in that they finally have a big entertainment competition show in The Voice and as a result they finally launched a drama that is averaging a 2.0 (Smash). Granted, much of that 2.0 is due to its placement after The Voice, but still that’s a victory for them. They also have a very decent Friday night player, Grimm, which is also returning.

I’d like to commend NBC on being smart and not rushing The Voice back on the air in the fall. I think that restraint and using the Super Bowl to launch it helped ensure its success this year. I think if it returned in the fall, the same time as returning scripted hits and X Factor, the results wouldn’t have been as strong.

I do think NBC did many strange scheduling things this year. I never understood relegating Grimm to Friday once all their fall offerings had flopped before it premiered. Their Wednesday scheduling all year has been somewhat perplexing. But the one thing that I really didn’t understand was not using The Voice results show to either launch Awake or at the very least not deprive Parenthood a full season and strong lead in. This is one of their best performers at 10 and easily their most critically acclaimed drama. Cutting the order made no sense to me, but it would have really benefited NBC to at least let the final 4 eps air behind a Voice results show instead of Fashion Star which is completely squandering that lead in.

I do expect Parenthood to return for the reasons I mentioned above. I also expect The Office to return for possibly a final season. Parks & Recreation needs one more season for syndication and is their most loved comedy. Its renewal is a sure thing. I believe Community will return for a final season as well. It’s NBCs second most loved comedy by critics, another year will give them 93 total episodes for syndication which will net them nice profits. The show also does well with young males. Lorne Michaels has two bubble shows. I’d expect a final 13 episode season for 30 Rock but I don’t expect Up All Night to return. NBC has too many underperforming comedies. They need to rebuild and they can’t renew them all. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them renew Whitney. It did better as a self-starter on Wednesday with total viewers and the demo then Up All Night on Thu and Community too. If they end up picking up some multi cams (like Roseanne’s Downwardly Mobile) I would not be shocked to see it paired with Whitney. That leaves Harry’s Law. The demo is not good, but find me one other show on NBC that gets 9 million viewers that’s not The Voice. You can’t. So yes, the demo is awful but why wouldn’t NBC renew this show for Friday night where it would likely retain those viewers? At this point I’m thinking it has a very good chance to return. Oh and expect lots more of Betty White’s Off Their Rockers.

While I commended NBC for holding the Voice for midseason this year, most early reports have it returning this fall. On one hand I get it, NBC finally has a big hit, they need it on in the fall. But I would argue that they are only shortening its life cycle. As is, the show has been trending down every week. Most of that is due to airing against DWTS. Both shows are hurting each other somewhat. But if its down to 3′s in only its 2nd second cycle, it’s not gonna get easier from here. NBC also has Sunday Night Football in the fall which gets them a number that no other net can come anywhere to producing in primetime anymore. So they can have NFL in fall, The Voice in Winter/Spring. I think the problem for NBC is they really have no returning hits they can slot it on Mon and Tue in the fall, so it appears, the thought process at NBC is, we have NFL on Sunday, Voice Mon and Tue and can use those shows to launch and promote new hits after The Voice and Wed and Thu. So while it will likely shorten its life as a hit, NBC seems to be feeling “we need this right now”and if they are fortunate to create new hits, they can always back down on The Voice in the future. Maybe if Howard Stern brings America’s Got Talent to an even bigger hit status (there’s no guarantee beyond the first night being huge), they’ll move that in the season and use the Voice half the year and AGT, the other half. But I’m getting ahead of myself. On to the Fall Scheduling.

Mon

I am going to assume that NBC will not produce 22 eps of Smash next year. As is, 15 proved to more of an undertaking and even with that amount, there was much criticism of the quality in storytelling. They could always spread 15 eps through February, but my guess is they’re gonna want to take advantage of NFL Sunday and Voice Monday to launch a new hit after The Voice in the fall and use The Voice Winter season (I assume there will be 2 next year) to bring back Smash OR move it to Tue either in fall or Winter.

Looking over NBCs drama development, I think they need to go after shows that are unique and ones that stand out from all that is on the air currently. Bad Girls has a really diverse cast and a premise (women in prison) unlike any on TV. John Wells producing doesn’t hurt and it feels like this could be the kind of show that would bring new viewers to NBC. It might make a good Mon 10p option.

Tue

Assuming The Voice results airs for the last 6 weeks, the question becomes what does NBC do prior? I can’t imagine they are gonna run a 2 hour Biggest Loser again. I’m not even sure TBL returns in the fall and on Tue. Maybe NBC can get an extra hour of Voice auditions til the results show starts. Tuesday is harder to predict and I assume I will be way off the mark from what actually happens on this night. I don’t think NBC will attempt to go comedy on this night since ABC will have multi cams covered 8-9 and FOX will likely have 4 single cams from 8-10, so I’m thinking that either a 1 hr TBL airs at 8, or maybe NBC airs Parenthood at 8 (and holds TBL til midseason) and uses The Voice results to launch a new drama. Again, I will assume they will try to use The Voice to launch something different/unique.  Do No Harm is a Jekyll/Hyde drama, the likes of which is not on TV now and might make a good 10p option or do they go with what sounds like their version of Revenge, called Notorious, which despite an almost exact sounding premise to the former, boasts a terrific cast?

Wednesday

The one thing I’m pretty confident about is SVU is back at 10p. I assume NBC will finally try to give this show a decent, more compatible lead. If they do greenlight a number of multi camera comedies, Wed might be a good place for 2 of them as there are none represented here and they did do decently with Whitney by itself. I really don’t think they’ll attempt to put comedies, even multi cams, at 9. The comedy audience is so well served with Modern Family. I think they might go for a new drama. Earlier in the year I would have suggested moving Grimm here. It has a devoted audience, and is counter programming to everything else in the hour and skews younger, but at this point I think it stays on Fri. Could they possibly air Chicago Fire here, which is different enough from Criminal Minds and comes from Dick Wolf and will probably be the most compatible lead to his own SVU? Yes it will likely come in 4th but it could still do a 2.0 and come in 4th and NBC would happily take a 2.0 at 9 which will also give SVU its best lead in its had in a long time.  Another option might be a one hour The Biggest Loser at 9 which should give them a 2.0 against tough competition and keeps them from sacrificing a new drama there. I’m gonna guess that NBC airs their two best new multi cams at 8p. Maybe Lady Friends and Table For Three - two female led, adult, multi camera comedies which will contrast with the family oriented single cams on ABC.

Thursday

NBC needs to totally rebuild this night but interestingly enough NBC might have their most promising options here. CBS will likely be multi cams from 8-10, and NBC has to expand from their niche single cams that have been airing here. They do, however, have very promising sounding, family oriented single cams in development. The New Normal from Ryan Murphy and Ali Adler is a family comedy about gay parents and their surrogate who form an unlikely family. This sounds fresh and yet relatable in the same way Modern Family did a few years back. I could easily see NBC making this the centerpiece of a rebuilt Thu and slotting it at 9. Will it get trounced by TBBT? Sure, but it’s not hard to see it vastly improving on the 2.1 The Office has been getting lately and if it garners great reviews and buzz, it could possibly grow in the long run. I am going to assume NBC moves The Office to 8pm and possibly puts their best, most mainstream new comedies after it. Matthew Perry’s Go On has already been ordered, so that might be a good option for 8:30 (support group comedy, might pair well with workplace The Office) and after The New Normal at 9:30, 1600 Penn is another family comedy with fresh new dressing (It’s set in the white house and boasts familiar faces in Bill Pullman, Jenna Elfman plus the very hot Josh Gad who co wrote it). If NBC doesn’t want to go with 3 new comedies, they could always slot Parks & Rec at 8:30. I don’t expect Community or 3o Rock to show up before midseason (or earlier if they’re needed to fill in for a cancelled show.) They will be renewed. They will air sometimes next season –  midseason, possibly into summer, but their numbers don’t justify being on the fall schedule. NBC needs to rebuild and I could see 3 new mainstream single cameras on this night. Remember, ABC debuted an entire new night 3 years ago and got 2 hits out of it, including one mega hit that’s still there. At 10p a new option could be County. Jason Katims makes wonderfully nuanced shows and the last medical drama to air here was huge for NBC.

Friday

I assume Grimm returns at 9, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Harry’s Law at 8 or 10 with possibly the other hour going to Dateline. Who Do you Think You Are should be renewed to air sometime next season on Friday.

I would expect NBC to use Sun, Mon and Tue to help promote the new offerings the rest of the week. I also expect them to order a lot of new shows for next season and to sprinkle the premieres throughout the season. I’d expect Sarah Silverman’s Susan 313 to be one of the other comedies ordered, possibly magical comedy Isabel, and Roseanne’s comedy too. On the drama side would not be shocked to see JJ Abrams/Eric Kripke’s Revolution as well as LOST sounding, Midnight Sun.  (Update 5/2/11 - NBC also has two projects from the brilliant Bryan Fuller in development – his take on The Munsters - Mockingbord Lane and his take on Hannibal which has already been ordered and wil air sometime next season).

Of course, with NBC in the state they are currently in, it’s quite possible they have some big reality show they are developing on the DL ready to spring on their schedule when they announce it in a few weeks. NBC has many holes to fill, and I feel far less confident about what they’re likely to do than any other network. Should be interesting.

Early Upfront Thoughts – ABC:

ABC had a great development season last year. The network launched new drama hits Once Upon A Time and Revenge. They launched two new comedy hits in Suburgatory and Last Man Standing. Several of their midseason shows look like they will return. Even shows like Pan Am and The River that won’t return, were big swings for the network and mostly delivered, especially the latter. (I still don’t get how American Horror Story resonated and The River didn’t). The only shows that can be considered critical and commercial disappoinments are: Charlies Angels, Man Up and Work It.

ABCs biggest hits usually emerge when they swing big and also stay on brand. For example, standard procedurals don’t usually work for them. They didnt greenlight to series the two they had in development last year and this year’s development roster, smartly, contains zero procedurals.  Just examining ABCs  biggest hits this year – Once Upon A Time was unlike anything else on TV currently and yet it has elements that are very ABC. There’s romance and a central couple to root for. What’s also interesting and unique to ABC,  is that the three protagonists and principal leads who are driving the story, are women.

Revenge is a return to the soap genre that has been dormant for quite some time, but done with twists, turns, romance and once again - two women driving the story. Different, but very on brand for ABC.

As they set their fall schedule I think the shows that ABC should pick up should once again  be on brand, but unique and different from what else is currently on TV. Desperate Housewives, LOST, Grey’s, Dancing With The Stars, Ugly Betty, Modern Family, Once Upon A Time – ABCs biggest hits come from taking big swings and doing something different.

Looking at their newly launched midseason shows, I actually think barring some huge ratings downturn the next few weeks – most of them will return.

GCB - has proven to have an audience that will turn up to watch it, after only 8 eps. Even last Sun when its lead in was a .9 it grew to a 1.5.

Scandal – has only aired for 3 weeks but has been consistent at a 2.0 every week. If it remains in that vicinity this week against a new Mentalist, I’ d say its a renewal will be locked.

Both these shows also have a nice amount of buzz too and they’re both very much on brand.

I should mention that even Missing, while airing against the 2 biggest shows on TV and at 8p, has never gotten less than 7.2 million and a 1.4 after 6 weeks. Obviously ABC can’t pick up every show, but given the fact that this is a co-production and slightly cheaper to produce, I could totally see ABC ordering another 10 eps for Summer 2013 and might be good 10p option for the summer months. I don’t expect it to return anywhere else but summer.

Dont Trust The B____ in Apt 23 has only aired for 2 weeks, but this has garnered stellar reviews and nice buzz and if it gets around the 2.5 area this Wed out of a rerun Modern Family I would assume that would all but lock a renewal. With all this good buzz, this is a show a network wants to renew and at this point as long as it doesn’t take any big drops, I think its chances of coming back are very good.

I have also mentioned before that I believe the network will renew Body of Proof for Friday or midseason and especially after Private Practice’s numbers in its slot last week, I think that is even more assured.

That leaves Private Practice. Given all the shows I expect them to bring back, one would assume this show is done. You can’t renew everything. But this show is from Shonda Rhimes who has been very good to ABC and the show still does decently. I will assume the network will bring it back for a final season of no more than 13 eps and likely hold it off the fall schedule to use it as a midseason replacement. Also I expect ABC to continue to order shows with different episode orders, some maybe as low as 6 and it’s possible some returning shows on the bubble get less than the standard 13. ( I also wouldn’ t be shocked to see Kate Walsh as Addison possibly return to Grey’s after PP ends).

The show I feel confident saying won’t return is, sadly, Cougar Town.

Even with Scandal and GCB on the fall schedule I still see 3 slots open to launch new dramas, should they desire to launch that many (ABC launched 4 dramas this fall). There will likely be an hour open on Sunday, an hour on Tuesday (or Monday if they move Castle) and an hour on Thu.

It’s also worth mentioning that ABC has already ordered to series (for 10 eps) Mistresses. It was ordered initially for summer 2013, but I assume as when ABC procured Ashley Judd for Missing, once Yunjin Kim and Alyssa Milano were assembled for the cast, the network has now slated it for sometime next season, which to me means, if it comes out really great, we might use it in fall or midseason.

Possible scheduling moves:

1)Revenge – ABC finally fixed the Wed at 10p problem and their whole Wed night lineup is stellar from start to finish creatively. It is one of their strongest nights ratings wise and you can tell just how much advertisers like it by the amount of commercials occupying an ep of Revenge, if you watch it live. That being said, there is a ceiling for 10p dramas lately, around the 2.4 area, even the mighty CBS is not pulling 3′s at 10 anymore. One can understand why ABC might want to move this show to Sun at 9 where it should likely do better (especially with Once at 8). To me, it all comes down to development. If ABC dramas come out well and if some of the more fantasy driven shows ABC developed (Gotham, Beauty & The Beast) come out well, then I think ABC might pair one of those with Once on Sunday (possibly air a new show at 8 and slide Once to 9 or vice versa) and at that point Revenge stays put. It’s this simple  – the only way ABC moves Revenge, is to put it at a 9p slot, Sun 9p, otherwise they don’t move it. They’re not gonna move it to another 10p slot and at this point unless their development sucks, I’m inclined to think it’s staying Wed at 10. Maybe I’ll change my mind in the next few weeks, but at this moment I’m thinking it’s not moving to Sun.

2) Castle – I’ve written about this before, and while it’s probably one of the worst times to move Castle, now that both CBS and NBC are players on Monday at 10, there are two-time periods Castle could potentially immediately improve: Tuesday 10p or even Thu 8p. Let’s face it Bones is doing very well with a 2.2 this spring against strong competition Mon at 8. ABC might be reticent to try to launch another new drama in that competitive slot that is Thu at 8. The one thing not occupying that timeslot is a light cop procedural. In fact the last show of that genre that was in that slot and did well was… Bones. But then again X Factor results aren’t IDOL results and CBS likely will move TBBT to 9p, so if ABC has a strong new drama contender,  Thu at 8p might be a good place to launch it. Grey’s won’t be at 9 forever and like they did with Once, they can potentially launch their next Thu drama at 8.

I’m gonna now turn my attention to possible scheduling scenarios for each night. Even if ABC launches 3 new drams in the fall, I expect them to pick up, up to 6 for use through the entire season. The new dramas I mention are ones that sound like they are unique enough to possibly pop on ABC, but who knows, it’s all in the execution.

Sunday

I’m feeling pretty confident currently that ABC will leave GCB at 10 and let it grow some more. Once Upon A Time will either be at 8 or if one of their more family friendly fantasy shows I mentioned above turns out well, I could see it debuting at 8 and Once being the 9p anchor. Another potential option for Sunday is Shawn Ryan’s Last Resort. Assuming this comes out well, you have a unique concept with a mega talented co creator/producer and a great cast headlined by Emmy winner Andre Braugher. If this makes the cut, this is the kind of marquee drama that would get the bulk of ABCs promotional muscle in the fall and out of any night of the week, Sunday would likely represent the best place for it to break out. The only drama competition would be on CBS and it likely a procedural like The Mentalist or a new drama. Yes it’s more male skewing than any other ABC drama and it would be airing opposite the NFL but I don’t think airing vs CBS on Tue or airing Thu at 8p would give it any easier welcome and the cast suggests it should appeal to both sexes. Finally, before you say GCB is a bad fit out of it, LOST tried many similar skewing shows following it and none worked. So while GCB is tonally different from Last Resort, I don’t think it’s a huge concern especially since it appears GCB is carving out an audience that will tune in for it. Another option might be 666 Park Avenue which would bring Terry O’ Quinn back to ABC and also has in its cast ABC Sunday veterans Vanessa Williams and Dave Annable. I would love to see ABC greenlight Devious Maids mostly because the wonderful Ana Ortiz and Judy Reyes front the cast but also because I really feel there is not enough diversity on TV and this show has 4 Latin woman as the leads. Obviously a Marc Cherry soap wouldn’t be foreign to Sun at 9.

Monday

DWTS will remain 8-10. Yes airing vs The Voice has hurt both shows but The Voice keeps dropping while DWTS maintains or grows as of late and their disparity in the demo was only .6 this week. Plus DWTS is far and away ahead in viewers, so that show is staying put. If Castle does move, I expect ABC to air one of their more female skewing, or soapy new shows here, like the aforementioned Devious Maids, or Scruples, or Americana.

There are two other shows that sound like they possibly are unique enough to pop and yet in the ABC pocket. One is Gilded Lillys which sound like a more commercial Downton Abbey that takes place in a New York hotel in 1895. It has a large impressive cast including John Barrowman and is executive by Shonda Rhimes. This might be a Monday option OR

Nashville - This takes place in the country music capital of the world. The terrific Connie Britton stars as a former red-hot country singer and there’s original country music in it. Between the cast and the genre this sounds like this could be something really fresh while the soapier aspects are right in ABCs wheelhouse. Callie Khouri wrote it and RJ Cutler directed. Love to see this make the cut.

Tuesdays

have continued to be a problem for ABC especially in between DWTS cycles. Adding a Voice results show has only made it more difficult. Last Man Standing has done better for ABC on Tue than any show has recently and opens up the possibility for a multi cam block. Until ratings went to hell for all of TV this spring, it  was never lower than a 2.2 and 7 million. It needs a stronger partner. With comedies so hot now, part of me wonders if ABC should just make this a 4 multi camera night with DWTS at 10. They wont do that as they have never aired DWTS at 10, plus with FOX likely to schedule a 4 single cam lineup maybe its better to have the cushion of DWTS at 9p. I do think ABC will pair Tim with Reba McEntire’s Malibu Country. She’s a beloved star and has a huge fan base and I could see ABC possibly starting the night with Reba and sliding LMS to 8:30. Once DWTS ends it might be smart to add two more 25-54 multi cams with beloved stars. Counter Culture boasts a terrific cast including Margo Martindale and sounds a bit like Golden Girls with siblings in a Texas diner. Sounds different enough and yet familiar. Kristie Alley has a sitcom still in contention (Manzinis) and 4 of those 25-54 multi cams of beloved stars sounds like a decent lineup. Either Castle or one of the aforementioned new dramas at 10.

Wednesday

might look almost the same except for one new sitcom. I think Apt 23 will return and possibly be paired somewhere with Happy Endings which I also expect to return (maybe midseason for both). I think ABC will finally add a single camera family comedy after Modern Family. They developed a bunch that sound like they are being eyed for this slot: Family Trap with Mandy Moore, Dan Fogleman’s alien family comedy, The Neighbors, and American Judy starring the wonderful Judy Greer. (Would be great for her to be in a vehicle that finally makes her a star.) Another comedy that’s getting some early buzz is How To Live With Your Parents For The Rest of Your Life starring Sarah Chalke. It was initially reported as being a hybrid comedy (like HIMYM) which to me looks and feels more multi cam. Recently I have seen it listed as single cam. If it is more single cam its likely more of a fit for Wed, if more multi cam seems like a Tue option.

There is the possibility that ABC will move the terrific Suburgatory to 9:30 and put the new comedy at 8:30 but I think they really would like to use Modern Family to launch something new, so probably not.

Depending on how Apt 23 does the next few weeks there is a outisde chance ABC will leave it here if it maintains or even grows over the next month. They might see potential and want to protect it a bit more before they send it on its own. Will have to see how it shakes out the next few weeks. My gut says new family single cam 9:30, but next few weeks will confirm that.

Thursday

I do think it’s likely to remain Greys and Scandal with a new 8p option, either a new drama – Last Resort, Nashville could potentially air here, though they will likely have an easier time breaking out in the other slots I mentioned. Castle is another option, like I mentioned above, or ABC may just go back to the reality well. It’s airing in the summer but part of me wonders how Secret Millionaire would have worked here. As I said,  X Factor is no Idol and TBBT likely will move to 9p so launching a new drama here might not look as daunting as it looks this spring.

Friday

This night is currently working really well for ABC. The only difference I suspect will be that something will likely share the 9p slot with What Would You Do. It might very well be Body of Proof.

I also think ABC should order 30 eps of Shark Tank. It only takes few days to shoot it and is relatively inexpensive. It reruns remarkably well and extra eps could be used on nights during the week when serial shows are on a break.

Speaking of scheduling here’s a thought: If ABC orders 24 eps of Once Upon A Time and airs 9 eps in the fall,  they will virtually be uninterrupted the whole season (they only air 2 eps in Feb with Oscars and Super Bowl).

If Revenge stays on Wed here is how I suggest ABC schedule it, in order to run as consecutive as possible and interrupt it the least: Run 9 eps in the fall, which barring one week of for the CMAs, takes them thru Nov sweeps. Then, take a break for December and January. If they can get producers to produce 24 eps (which is hard for such serialized shows) then it can return at the start of Feb sweeps and run uninterrupted for 15 weeks thru May Sweeps. If producers only will produce 22, they can add a clip show the first week back as a recap and maybe end a week or two early in May. This way they are covered mostly thru all sweep periods, they are off the 2 least important months of the year and run essentially uninterrupted when it’s on.

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